Lost Thunder Prism Star Pull Rate — 8.33% per pack (1 in 12)
8.33% of Lost Thunder booster packs contain a Prism Star card — roughly 1 in 12 packs. Lost Thunder ships 7 Prism Star cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Prism Star is 0.0119 (≈1 in 84). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Lost Thunder Prism Star pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 8.33% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 7 Prism Star cards = 1 in 84. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Prism Star cards in Lost Thunder
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ditto ◇ #154 | $19.22 | 1 in 84 |
| 2 | Celebi ◇ #19 | $7.28 | 1 in 84 |
| 3 | Xerneas ◇ #144 | $5.19 | 1 in 84 |
| 4 | Thunder Mountain ◇ #191 | $1.63 | 1 in 84 |
| 5 | Lusamine ◇ #182 | $1.17 | 1 in 84 |
| 6 | Heat Factory ◇ #178 | $1.05 | 1 in 84 |
| 7 | Life Forest ◇ #180 | $1.03 | 1 in 84 |
How the 8.33% rate is computed
Every Lost Thunder booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Prism Star, and the era's other chase rarities. The Prism Star tier captures 8.33% of those rare-slot draws (= 8.33 packs out of every 100). Within the Prism Star tier, all 7 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 8.33% ÷ 7 = 0.0119 = 1 in 84.
This is the same math PackRip's live Lost Thunder simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 8.33% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Prism Star
Prism Star pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.083300. The expected number of packs until your first Prism Star hit is 13; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 35 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Prism Star with probability 95.6% — so the average box yields just over 3.0 Prism Star pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Lost Thunder packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Lost Thunder binder completion calculator
- Lost Thunder per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Lost Thunder cards