Lost Thunder Rare Holo Pull Rate — 28.00% per pack (1 in 4)
28.00% of Lost Thunder booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 4 packs. Lost Thunder ships 21 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0133 (≈1 in 75). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Lost Thunder Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 28.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 21 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 75. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Lost Thunder
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nihilego #106 | $13.58 | 1 in 75 |
| 2 | Typhlosion #42 | $10.41 | 1 in 75 |
| 3 | Giratina #97 | $10.31 | 1 in 75 |
| 4 | Meganium #8 | $5.78 | 1 in 75 |
| 5 | Naganadel #108 | $4.83 | 1 in 75 |
| 6 | Tapu Fini #151 | $3.48 | 1 in 75 |
| 7 | Suicune #59 | $2.75 | 1 in 75 |
| 8 | Shaymin #33 | $2.68 | 1 in 75 |
| 9 | Scizor #126 | $2.44 | 1 in 75 |
| 10 | Chandelure #103 | $2.11 | 1 in 75 |
| 11 | Gardevoir #141 | $1.86 | 1 in 75 |
| 12 | Ampharos #78 | $1.65 | 1 in 75 |
| 13 | Tapu Lele #150 | $1.50 | 1 in 75 |
| 14 | Dialga #127 | $1.39 | 1 in 75 |
| 15 | Blissey #153 | $1.39 | 1 in 75 |
| 16 | White Kyurem #63 | $1.35 | 1 in 75 |
| 17 | Jumpluff #14 | $0.94 | 1 in 75 |
| 18 | Tapu Bulu #37 | $0.93 | 1 in 75 |
| 19 | Tapu Koko #85 | $0.92 | 1 in 75 |
| 20 | Cobalion #129 | $0.71 | 1 in 75 |
| 21 | Heatran #48 | $0.40 | 1 in 75 |
How the 28.00% rate is computed
Every Lost Thunder booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 28.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 28.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 21 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 28.00% ÷ 21 = 0.0133 = 1 in 75.
This is the same math PackRip's live Lost Thunder simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 28.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.280000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 10 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 10.1 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Lost Thunder packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Lost Thunder binder completion calculator
- Lost Thunder per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Lost Thunder cards