Ultra Prism Secret Rare Pull Rate — 5.00% per pack (1 in 20)
5.00% of Ultra Prism booster packs contain a Secret Rare card — roughly 1 in 20 packs. Ultra Prism ships 6 Secret Rare cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Secret Rare is 0.0083 (≈1 in 120). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Ultra Prism Secret Rare pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 5.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 6 Secret Rare cards = 1 in 120. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Secret Rare cards in Ultra Prism
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lunala-GX #172 | $60.20 | 1 in 120 |
| 2 | Solgaleo-GX #173 | $54.28 | 1 in 120 |
| 3 | Crushing Hammer #166 | $37.83 | 1 in 120 |
| 4 | Missing Clover #168 | $9.71 | 1 in 120 |
| 5 | Escape Board #167 | $6.93 | 1 in 120 |
| 6 | Peeking Red Card #169 | $5.43 | 1 in 120 |
How the 5.00% rate is computed
Every Ultra Prism booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Secret Rare, and the era's other chase rarities. The Secret Rare tier captures 5.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 5.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Secret Rare tier, all 6 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 5.00% ÷ 6 = 0.0083 = 1 in 120.
This is the same math PackRip's live Ultra Prism simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 5.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Secret Rare
Secret Rare pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.050000. The expected number of packs until your first Secret Rare hit is 21; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 59 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Secret Rare with probability 84.2% — so the average box yields just over 1.8 Secret Rare pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Ultra Prism packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Ultra Prism binder completion calculator
- Ultra Prism per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Ultra Prism cards