Ultra Prism Rainbow Rare Pull Rate — 2.80% per pack (1 in 36)
2.80% of Ultra Prism booster packs contain a Rainbow Rare card — roughly 1 in 36 packs. Ultra Prism ships 9 Rainbow Rare cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rainbow Rare is 0.0031 (≈1 in 321). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Ultra Prism Rainbow Rare pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 2.80% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 9 Rainbow Rare cards = 1 in 321. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rainbow Rare cards in Ultra Prism
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leafeon-GX #157 | $84.15 | 1 in 321 |
| 2 | Glaceon-GX #159 | $78.40 | 1 in 321 |
| 3 | Palkia-GX #165 | $49.70 | 1 in 321 |
| 4 | Dialga-GX #164 | $42.16 | 1 in 321 |
| 5 | Xurkitree-GX #160 | $30.56 | 1 in 321 |
| 6 | Celesteela-GX #162 | $27.63 | 1 in 321 |
| 7 | Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX #163 | $24.04 | 1 in 321 |
| 8 | Dawn Wings Necrozma-GX #161 | $23.97 | 1 in 321 |
| 9 | Pheromosa-GX #158 | $18.41 | 1 in 321 |
How the 2.80% rate is computed
Every Ultra Prism booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rainbow Rare, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rainbow Rare tier captures 2.80% of those rare-slot draws (= 2.80 packs out of every 100). Within the Rainbow Rare tier, all 9 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 2.80% ÷ 9 = 0.0031 = 1 in 321.
This is the same math PackRip's live Ultra Prism simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 2.80% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rainbow Rare
Rainbow Rare pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.028000. The expected number of packs until your first Rainbow Rare hit is 36; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 106 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rainbow Rare with probability 64.0% — so the average box yields just over 1.0 Rainbow Rare pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Ultra Prism packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Ultra Prism binder completion calculator
- Ultra Prism per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Ultra Prism cards