Shining Fates VMAX Pull Rate — 5.56% per pack (1 in 18)
5.56% of Shining Fates booster packs contain a VMAX card — roughly 1 in 18 packs. Shining Fates ships 13 VMAX cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific VMAX is 0.0043 (≈1 in 234). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Shining Fates VMAX pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 5.56% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 13 VMAX cards = 1 in 234. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
VMAX cards in Shining Fates
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charizard VMAX #SV107 | $150.73 | 1 in 234 |
| 2 | Ditto VMAX #SV119 | $15.82 | 1 in 234 |
| 3 | Lapras VMAX #SV111 | $8.96 | 1 in 234 |
| 4 | Ditto VMAX #51 | $5.31 | 1 in 234 |
| 5 | Toxtricity VMAX #SV113 | $4.14 | 1 in 234 |
| 6 | Grimmsnarl VMAX #SV117 | $3.81 | 1 in 234 |
| 7 | Morpeko VMAX #38 | $2.82 | 1 in 234 |
| 8 | Rillaboom VMAX #SV106 | $2.52 | 1 in 234 |
| 9 | Cinderace VMAX #19 | $2.04 | 1 in 234 |
| 10 | Centiskorch VMAX #SV109 | $1.89 | 1 in 234 |
| 11 | Crobat VMAX #45 | $1.53 | 1 in 234 |
| 12 | Cramorant VMAX #55 | $1.52 | 1 in 234 |
| 13 | Dhelmise VMAX #10 | $1.47 | 1 in 234 |
How the 5.56% rate is computed
Every Shining Fates booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 8 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, VMAX, and the era's other chase rarities. The VMAX tier captures 5.56% of those rare-slot draws (= 5.56 packs out of every 100). Within the VMAX tier, all 13 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 5.56% ÷ 13 = 0.0043 = 1 in 234.
This is the same math PackRip's live Shining Fates simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 5.56% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit VMAX
VMAX pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.055600. The expected number of packs until your first VMAX hit is 18; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 53 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit VMAX with probability 87.2% — so the average box yields just over 2.0 VMAX pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Shining Fates packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Shining Fates binder completion calculator
- Shining Fates per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Shining Fates cards
- Every VMAX card across all 140 booster sets