What is the Special Illustration Rare pull rate in 30th Celebration?

5.80% per booster pack — roughly 1 in 17 30th Celebration packs contains a Special Illustration Rare card. 30th Celebration ships 10 Special Illustration Rare cards in its pool, so per-card odds are ≈1 in 172. The rate is PackRip's own published constant for that tier, identical in the simulator and in this dataset. It is not derived from real print-run data, which has never been published.

How many 30th Celebration packs to pull a Special Illustration Rare?

On average 18 packs to hit your first Special Illustration Rare — that's the expected value of a geometric distribution with parameter p=0.058000. At 95% confidence you'll have one within 51 packs. A sealed 36-pack booster box yields a Special Illustration Rare with probability 88.4%.

Which Special Illustration Rare cards are in 30th Celebration?

10 Special Illustration Rare cards: Fuecoco ex, Greninja ex, Pikachu ex, Pikachu ex, Mewtwo ex, plus 5 more. The full list with TCGplayer market prices is in the table on this page. The most valuable by market price is Fuecoco ex.

30th Celebration Special Illustration Rare Pull Rate — 5.80% per pack (1 in 17)

Fuecoco ex — 30th Celebration

5.80% of 30th Celebration booster packs contain a Special Illustration Rare card — roughly 1 in 17 packs. 30th Celebration ships 10 Special Illustration Rare cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Special Illustration Rare is 0.0058 (≈1 in 172). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.

30th Celebration Special Illustration Rare pull-rate methodology

How PackRip computes this page
Formula	Tier odds = 5.80% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 10 Special Illustration Rare cards = 1 in 172.
Assumptions	One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split.
Data source	Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from `rareSlotRates()`, mirrored from the live pack opener.
Update cadence	Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change.
Limitations	This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences.

Special Illustration Rare cards in 30th Celebration

#	Card	TCGplayer market	Per-card odds
1	Fuecoco ex #147	—	1 in 172
2	Greninja ex #148	—	1 in 172
3	Pikachu ex #149	—	1 in 172
4	Pikachu ex #150	—	1 in 172
5	Mewtwo ex #151	—	1 in 172
6	Mew ex #152	—	1 in 172
7	Sylveon ex #153	—	1 in 172
8	Gengar ex #154	—	1 in 172
9	Jirachi ex #155	—	1 in 172
10	Salamence ex #156	—	1 in 172

How the 5.80% rate is computed

Every 30th Celebration booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 5 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and the era's other chase rarities. The Special Illustration Rare tier captures 5.80% of those rare-slot draws (= 5.80 packs out of every 100). Within the Special Illustration Rare tier, all 10 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 5.80% ÷ 10 = 0.0058 = 1 in 172.

This is the same math PackRip's live 30th Celebration simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 5.80% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.

Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Special Illustration Rare

Special Illustration Rare pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.058000. The expected number of packs until your first Special Illustration Rare hit is 18; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 51 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Special Illustration Rare with probability 88.4% — so the average box yields just over 2.1 Special Illustration Rare pulls.