How Many Packs to Pull 暗いクロバット from 闇、そして光へ…

暗いクロバット chase methodology

This page answers exactly one question: how many 闇、そして光へ… booster packs does it take to pull 暗いクロバット #12? The numbers below come from the same per-rarity pull-rate model the PackRip 闇、そして光へ… simulator runs on, mirrored from packGenerator.ts. TCGplayer pricing refreshes every build, so the buy-vs-rip verdict at the bottom reflects current market.

The math: ~1 in 42 per pack

暗いクロバット sits in the Rare Holo rare-slot pool for 闇、そして光へ…. There are 15 Rare Holo cards in the 闇、そして光へ… pool, and the Rare Holo slot fires with probability 36.00% per pack. Since the slot is split evenly across the 15 cards in that tier, the per-pack chance of pulling this specific card is 1 in 42 — approximately 1 in 42.

Pulls are independent and identically distributed, so the number of packs until you hit 暗いクロバット follows a geometric distribution with parameter p = 0.024000. The expected number of packs is 1/p — that's ~42 packs on average. But "average" hides huge variance: the median pull lands faster than the mean (~29 packs at 50% confidence), and a long unlucky tail can stretch the wait dramatically. The 95% confidence band — 124 packs — is where 95% of pull-runs finish; the remaining 5% take even longer.

Concretely: if 100 collectors each opened 闇、そして光へ… packs until they pulled 暗いクロバット, roughly 50 of them would have it by pack 29, 95 of them would have it by pack 124, and a handful would still be chasing past that. Expected ≠ guaranteed; the geometric distribution is famously long-tailed on the right side.

Confidence bands — packs vs cumulative probability

Read this table as "what fraction of openers have pulled 暗いクロバット by pack N?". A 25% band of 12 packs means a quarter of openers hit it inside that window; 99% means almost everyone has hit it by pack 190. The dollar column anchors the variance to real-world sealed-pack cost at $5/pack.

Cheaper to buy 暗いクロバット as a single?

Buying 暗いクロバット as a single on TCGplayer (~$2.88) is dramatically cheaper than chasing it through packs — the expected pack-rip cost is roughly $208, well above the market price.

Pack-rip expected dollar cost for this specific card: ~$208 at $5 per 闇、そして光へ… pack. Compare to $2.88 for the single on TCGplayer (Unlimited / non-graded copy at current market). The single buy obviously delivers exactly this card; the pack-rip approach delivers 暗いクロバット plus the remaining 10 cards in every pack along the way — which is why the EV calculator at /ev/pmcg10 spreads the cost across the whole pack contents instead of pinning it to one card.

About 暗いクロバット (闇、そして光へ…)

暗いクロバット is a Rare Holo card from 闇、そして光へ…, the 2001 Pokémon TCG expansion. 闇、そして光へ… is a 2001 Pokémon TCG booster expansion.

This specific card ranks as one of the top-3 most valuable pulls in 闇、そして光へ… by TCGplayer market value, which is part of why the chase math is what it is — high market value tends to track with rarity-tier depth, since lower pool sizes concentrate value into fewer cards. The complete top-25 闇、そして光へ… ranking shows where 暗いクロバット sits relative to the rest of the chase pool.

Pull odds in context

For reference, a "1 in 42" pull is roughly comparable to a moderate chase — you should expect to crack a couple of boxes. The variance is the killer: any one pack could be the one. The simulation on PackRip's 闇、そして光へ… opener uses the same exact RNG model, so you can stress-test the wait curve without spending real money.

Related chases

• 軽アルカニン — Rare Holo, $2.88 market
• 暗い染色 — Rare Holo, $2.88 market
• All 暗いクロバット printings across 3 sets
• All top-25 闇、そして光へ… chases
• Complete the 闇、そして光へ… binder — full calculator

Open 闇、そして光へ… free

Rip 闇、そして光へ… packs free on PackRip's simulator with the same per-rarity pull rates this page is built from. The Hunt Pack mode boosts the Rare Holo slot if you specifically want to optimise for 暗いクロバット-tier pulls. Coin economy is virtual — no real money on the line.

Strategy: optimising the 暗いクロバット chase

Every experienced 闇、そして光へ… hunter eventually picks one of three approaches for a specific chase card. The cheapest is the snipe: skip pack-ripping entirely, set a TCGplayer alert at or below the current $2.88 market, and wait for a motivated seller. This is the route most efficient-frontier collectors take when the chase is locked behind a deep rarity tier — and the math above shows why. The expected pack-rip cost ($208) is typically multiples of the single price, and the variance on that expectation is wide enough that a single bad streak can blow past the 95% confidence bound. The single buy is dollar-for-dollar cheaper and emotionally cheaper too — no more refreshing pack-pull videos at 3am.

The middle path is the box-rip-then-snipe: open a sealed booster box of 闇、そして光へ… (typically 36 packs for vintage sets), enjoy the experience, then if you didn't hit 暗いクロバット in the box, buy the single for $2.88. A 36-pack box delivers a probability of 1 − (1 − p)³⁶ ≈ 58.3% of pulling 暗いクロバット at least once, where p is the per-pack hit rate of 0.024000. So a sealed box gives you roughly a 58% chance of hitting this card "for free" alongside the rest of the box contents, plus the rip experience. If you miss, you backstop by buying the single — total worst-case cost is the box price plus the single. Most rational hobbyists end here.

The expensive path is pure-rip-to-pull: keep opening packs until 暗いクロバット appears. The expected total cost is ~$208, but the 95th percentile pushes that to ~$620. Almost nobody who does this comes out ahead financially — but it produces the binder story, the YouTube content, and the cumulative pulls of the entire pack contents along the way. If your real goal is collecting all of 闇、そして光へ…, not just acquiring 暗いクロバット, the pure-rip path has an internal logic the singles path doesn't.

Variance is the entire story

Here's a concrete illustration of how wild the geometric distribution gets at low p. Consider 10 hypothetical openers all chasing 暗いクロバット from 闇、そして光へ…. Mathematically, you'd expect their results to cluster near the 42-pack expectation — but they won't. Roughly 5 will pull 暗いクロバット within the first 29 packs and feel lucky. Roughly 3 will pull between 29 and 42 packs and feel "about average". And roughly 2 will be still pulling past pack 42, with one of them potentially stretching past the 95% bound of 124. The unlucky ones will swear the simulator is rigged, the rates are wrong, or that they have terrible RNG — but the math says exactly this distribution should happen every time. The geometric distribution has no memory: each pack is an independent draw, and a 100-pack dry streak does not increase the odds of the next pack hitting.

How 暗いクロバット compares to the broader 闇、そして光へ… chase pool

暗いクロバット sits in the Rare Holo tier of 闇、そして光へ…'s rare-slot pool. 15 cards share this tier, and the tier itself fires roughly 36.00% of the time per pack. That means the per-pack chance of pulling any Rare Holo card (not just 暗いクロバット) is 36.00%, which makes the expected wait for any Rare Holo card much shorter than the wait for this specific one. Pull-rate intuition: a single chase from a 6-card tier is 6× rarer than the tier itself. The deeper the pool, the longer the chase. This is also why "wide" sets with many chase cards in a single tier feel grindier per individual card despite the tier hit rate being identical — a thicker tier dilutes each card's specific share.

If your real goal is "any chase card from 闇、そして光へ…" rather than "暗いクロバット specifically", the math gets dramatically friendlier — the wait drops to ~3 packs on average for the tier as a whole. Most binder collectors approach it this way: chase the tier broadly across multiple sets, accept whatever pulls, and snipe the specific holes via TCGplayer later. Targeting one card from a thick tier is the most expensive way to play the chase, and 暗いクロバット is no exception.