Fates Collide Pokémon-ex Pull Rate — 16.70% per pack (1 in 6)
16.70% of Fates Collide booster packs contain a Pokémon-ex card — roughly 1 in 6 packs. Fates Collide ships 10 Pokémon-ex cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Pokémon-ex is 0.0167 (≈1 in 60). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Fates Collide Pokémon-ex pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 16.70% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 10 Pokémon-ex cards = 1 in 60. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Pokémon-ex cards in Fates Collide
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umbreon-EX #55 | $57.75 | 1 in 60 |
| 2 | Glaceon-EX #20 | $16.40 | 1 in 60 |
| 3 | Alakazam-EX #25 | $13.60 | 1 in 60 |
| 4 | Diancie-EX #72 | $5.11 | 1 in 60 |
| 5 | Audino-EX #84 | $4.26 | 1 in 60 |
| 6 | Kingdra-EX #73 | $4.24 | 1 in 60 |
| 7 | Zygarde-EX #54 | $3.65 | 1 in 60 |
| 8 | Altaria-EX #83 | $2.80 | 1 in 60 |
| 9 | Regirock-EX #43 | $2.43 | 1 in 60 |
| 10 | Genesect-EX #64 | $2.03 | 1 in 60 |
How the 16.70% rate is computed
Every Fates Collide booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Pokémon-ex, and the era's other chase rarities. The Pokémon-ex tier captures 16.70% of those rare-slot draws (= 16.70 packs out of every 100). Within the Pokémon-ex tier, all 10 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 16.70% ÷ 10 = 0.0167 = 1 in 60.
This is the same math PackRip's live Fates Collide simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 16.70% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Pokémon-ex
Pokémon-ex pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.167000. The expected number of packs until your first Pokémon-ex hit is 6; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 17 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Pokémon-ex with probability 99.9% — so the average box yields just over 6.0 Pokémon-ex pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Fates Collide packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Fates Collide binder completion calculator
- Fates Collide per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Fates Collide cards
- Every Pokémon-ex card across all 140 booster sets