What is the Secret Rare pull rate in Silver Tempest?

5.00% per booster pack — roughly 1 in 20 Silver Tempest packs contains a Secret Rare card. Silver Tempest ships 5 Secret Rare cards in its pool, so per-card odds are ≈1 in 100. The rate is PackRip's own published constant for that tier, identical in the simulator and in this dataset. It is not derived from real print-run data, which has never been published.

How many Silver Tempest packs to pull a Secret Rare?

On average 20 packs to hit your first Secret Rare — that's the expected value of a geometric distribution with parameter p=0.050000. At 95% confidence you'll have one within 59 packs. A sealed 36-pack booster box yields a Secret Rare with probability 84.2%.

Which Secret Rare cards are in Silver Tempest?

5 Secret Rare cards: Lugia VSTAR, Energy Switch, Serperior VSTAR, Leafy Camo Poncho, Gapejaw Bog. The full list with TCGplayer market prices is in the table on this page. The most valuable by market price is Lugia VSTAR at $25.27.

Silver Tempest Secret Rare Pull Rate — 5.00% per pack (1 in 20)

Lugia VSTAR — Silver Tempest

5.00% of Silver Tempest booster packs contain a Secret Rare card — roughly 1 in 20 packs. Silver Tempest ships 5 Secret Rare cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Secret Rare is 0.0100 (≈1 in 100). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.

Silver Tempest Secret Rare pull-rate methodology

How PackRip computes this page
Formula	Tier odds = 5.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 5 Secret Rare cards = 1 in 100.
Assumptions	One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split.
Data source	Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from `rareSlotRates()`, mirrored from the live pack opener.
Update cadence	Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change.
Limitations	This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences.

Secret Rare cards in Silver Tempest

#	Card	TCGplayer market	Per-card odds
1	Lugia VSTAR #211	$25.27	1 in 100
2	Energy Switch #212	$11.11	1 in 100
3	Serperior VSTAR #210	$5.93	1 in 100
4	Leafy Camo Poncho #214	$2.80	1 in 100
5	Gapejaw Bog #213	$2.37	1 in 100

How the 5.00% rate is computed

Every Silver Tempest booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 9 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Secret Rare, and the era's other chase rarities. The Secret Rare tier captures 5.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 5.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Secret Rare tier, all 5 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 5.00% ÷ 5 = 0.0100 = 1 in 100.

This is the same math PackRip's live Silver Tempest simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 5.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.

Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Secret Rare

Secret Rare pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.050000. The expected number of packs until your first Secret Rare hit is 20; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 59 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Secret Rare with probability 84.2% — so the average box yields just over 1.8 Secret Rare pulls.

Related on PackRip

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