Surging Sparks Pokemon ex Pull Rate — 16.70% per pack (1 in 6)
16.70% of Surging Sparks booster packs contain a Pokemon ex card — roughly 1 in 6 packs. Surging Sparks ships 18 Pokemon ex cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Pokemon ex is 0.0093 (≈1 in 108). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Surging Sparks Pokemon ex pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 16.70% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 18 Pokemon ex cards = 1 in 108. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Pokemon ex cards in Surging Sparks
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pikachu ex #57 | $5.01 | 1 in 108 |
| 2 | Latias ex #76 | $4.98 | 1 in 108 |
| 3 | Sylveon ex #86 | $2.77 | 1 in 108 |
| 4 | Ceruledge ex #36 | $1.50 | 1 in 108 |
| 5 | Hydreigon ex #119 | $0.79 | 1 in 108 |
| 6 | Milotic ex #42 | $0.77 | 1 in 108 |
| 7 | Slaking ex #147 | $0.76 | 1 in 108 |
| 8 | Tatsugiri ex #142 | $0.74 | 1 in 108 |
| 9 | Alolan Exeggutor ex #133 | $0.72 | 1 in 108 |
| 10 | Black Kyurem ex #48 | $0.71 | 1 in 108 |
| 11 | Flamigo ex #160 | $0.70 | 1 in 108 |
| 12 | Palossand ex #91 | $0.69 | 1 in 108 |
| 13 | Flygon ex #106 | $0.68 | 1 in 108 |
| 14 | Cyclizar ex #159 | $0.68 | 1 in 108 |
| 15 | Kilowattrel ex #68 | $0.66 | 1 in 108 |
| 16 | Durant ex #4 | $0.64 | 1 in 108 |
| 17 | Scovillain ex #37 | $0.63 | 1 in 108 |
| 18 | Archaludon ex #130 | $0.60 | 1 in 108 |
How the 16.70% rate is computed
Every Surging Sparks booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Pokemon ex, and the era's other chase rarities. The Pokemon ex tier captures 16.70% of those rare-slot draws (= 16.70 packs out of every 100). Within the Pokemon ex tier, all 18 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 16.70% ÷ 18 = 0.0093 = 1 in 108.
This is the same math PackRip's live Surging Sparks simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 16.70% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Pokemon ex
Pokemon ex pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.167000. The expected number of packs until your first Pokemon ex hit is 6; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 17 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Pokemon ex with probability 99.9% — so the average box yields just over 6.0 Pokemon ex pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Surging Sparks packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Surging Sparks binder completion calculator
- Surging Sparks per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Surging Sparks cards
- Every Pokemon ex card across all 140 booster sets