Paldean Fates Shiny Vault Pull Rate — 16.70% per pack (1 in 6)
16.70% of Paldean Fates booster packs contain a Shiny Vault card — roughly 1 in 6 packs. Paldean Fates ships 132 Shiny Vault cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Shiny Vault is 0.0013 (≈1 in 790). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Paldean Fates Shiny Vault pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 16.70% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 132 Shiny Vault cards = 1 in 790. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Shiny Vault cards in Paldean Fates
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pikachu #131 | $89.75 | 1 in 790 |
| 2 | Snorlax #202 | $66.91 | 1 in 790 |
| 3 | Charmander #109 | $55.92 | 1 in 790 |
| 4 | Ditto #201 | $53.43 | 1 in 790 |
| 5 | Mimikyu #160 | $52.91 | 1 in 790 |
| 6 | Mew ex #216 | $39.05 | 1 in 790 |
| 7 | Maushold #210 | $35.98 | 1 in 790 |
| 8 | Lucario #174 | $33.66 | 1 in 790 |
| 9 | Tandemaus #209 | $31.57 | 1 in 790 |
| 10 | Jigglypuff #198 | $26.87 | 1 in 790 |
| 11 | Raichu #132 | $26.49 | 1 in 790 |
| 12 | Shinx #135 | $22.20 | 1 in 790 |
| 13 | Slowpoke #116 | $21.80 | 1 in 790 |
| 14 | Charmeleon #110 | $20.38 | 1 in 790 |
| 15 | Entei #112 | $19.71 | 1 in 790 |
| 16 | Riolu #173 | $15.15 | 1 in 790 |
| 17 | Slowbro #117 | $14.87 | 1 in 790 |
| 18 | Abra #148 | $13.41 | 1 in 790 |
| 19 | Oddish #92 | $13.30 | 1 in 790 |
| 20 | Scyther #95 | $12.18 | 1 in 790 |
| 21 | Ralts #153 | $11.77 | 1 in 790 |
| 22 | Ceruledge #162 | $11.64 | 1 in 790 |
| 23 | Paldean Wooper #180 | $11.54 | 1 in 790 |
| 24 | Pachirisu #138 | $11.02 | 1 in 790 |
| 25 | Luxray #137 | $10.96 | 1 in 790 |
| 26 | Gardevoir ex #217 | $10.73 | 1 in 790 |
| 27 | Dachsbun #161 | $10.40 | 1 in 790 |
| 28 | Tinkaton #167 | $9.89 | 1 in 790 |
| 29 | Starmie #119 | $9.85 | 1 in 790 |
| 30 | Lechonk #207 | $9.62 | 1 in 790 |
| 31 | Scizor #191 | $9.46 | 1 in 790 |
| 32 | Tinkatink #165 | $8.63 | 1 in 790 |
| 33 | Hawlucha #175 | $7.78 | 1 in 790 |
| 34 | Kirlia #154 | $7.71 | 1 in 790 |
| 35 | Pidgey #196 | $7.47 | 1 in 790 |
| 36 | Alakazam ex #215 | $7.41 | 1 in 790 |
| 37 | Vileplume #94 | $6.97 | 1 in 790 |
| 38 | Wigglytuff #147 | $6.97 | 1 in 790 |
| 39 | Sableye #184 | $6.90 | 1 in 790 |
| 40 | Tatsugiri #127 | $6.83 | 1 in 790 |
| 41 | Tinkatuff #166 | $6.81 | 1 in 790 |
| 42 | Kadabra #149 | $6.75 | 1 in 790 |
| 43 | Staryu #118 | $6.57 | 1 in 790 |
| 44 | Luxio #136 | $5.98 | 1 in 790 |
| 45 | Charcadet #114 | $5.85 | 1 in 790 |
| 46 | Pidgeotto #197 | $5.63 | 1 in 790 |
| 47 | Mime Jr. #157 | $5.46 | 1 in 790 |
| 48 | Spiritomb #158 | $5.44 | 1 in 790 |
| 49 | Noibat #194 | $5.29 | 1 in 790 |
| 50 | Gloom #93 | $5.26 | 1 in 790 |
| 51 | Armarouge #115 | $5.17 | 1 in 790 |
| 52 | Drifloon #155 | $5.11 | 1 in 790 |
| 53 | Finizen #123 | $4.98 | 1 in 790 |
| 54 | Cleffa #150 | $4.85 | 1 in 790 |
| 55 | Jumpluff #98 | $4.76 | 1 in 790 |
| 56 | Pawmi #142 | $4.73 | 1 in 790 |
| 57 | Klefki #159 | $4.65 | 1 in 790 |
| 58 | Voltorb #133 | $4.64 | 1 in 790 |
| 59 | Smoliv #102 | $4.49 | 1 in 790 |
| 60 | Baxcalibur #130 | $4.44 | 1 in 790 |
| 61 | Oinkologne #208 | $4.30 | 1 in 790 |
| 62 | Mankey #169 | $4.20 | 1 in 790 |
| 63 | Electrode #134 | $4.16 | 1 in 790 |
| 64 | Dodrio #200 | $3.98 | 1 in 790 |
| 65 | Flamigo #211 | $3.88 | 1 in 790 |
| 66 | Doduo #199 | $3.84 | 1 in 790 |
| 67 | Annihilape #171 | $3.78 | 1 in 790 |
| 68 | Primeape #170 | $3.76 | 1 in 790 |
| 69 | Pawmo #143 | $3.74 | 1 in 790 |
| 70 | Arctibax #129 | $3.69 | 1 in 790 |
| 71 | Sneasel #182 | $3.59 | 1 in 790 |
| 72 | Pawmot #144 | $3.55 | 1 in 790 |
| 73 | Weavile #183 | $3.53 | 1 in 790 |
| 74 | Toxel #140 | $3.48 | 1 in 790 |
| 75 | Paldean Tauros #120 | $3.37 | 1 in 790 |
| 76 | Hoppip #96 | $3.35 | 1 in 790 |
| 77 | Paldean Tauros #172 | $3.33 | 1 in 790 |
| 78 | Toedscool #105 | $3.30 | 1 in 790 |
| 79 | Murkrow #181 | $3.28 | 1 in 790 |
| 80 | Wingull #203 | $3.26 | 1 in 790 |
| 81 | Wiglett #121 | $3.24 | 1 in 790 |
| 82 | Oricorio #113 | $3.22 | 1 in 790 |
| 83 | Dondozo #126 | $3.17 | 1 in 790 |
| 84 | Kingambit #187 | $3.16 | 1 in 790 |
| 85 | Paldean Tauros #111 | $3.14 | 1 in 790 |
| 86 | Drifblim #156 | $3.11 | 1 in 790 |
| 87 | Thundurus #139 | $3.00 | 1 in 790 |
| 88 | Xatu #152 | $2.98 | 1 in 790 |
| 89 | Toxtricity #141 | $2.97 | 1 in 790 |
| 90 | Snover #100 | $2.96 | 1 in 790 |
| 91 | Skiploom #97 | $2.94 | 1 in 790 |
| 92 | Wigglytuff ex #222 | $2.90 | 1 in 790 |
| 93 | Wattrel #145 | $2.81 | 1 in 790 |
| 94 | Pawniard #185 | $2.81 | 1 in 790 |
| 95 | Dolliv #103 | $2.80 | 1 in 790 |
| 96 | Natu #151 | $2.80 | 1 in 790 |
| 97 | Bisharp #186 | $2.80 | 1 in 790 |
| 98 | Wugtrio #122 | $2.79 | 1 in 790 |
| 99 | Flittle #164 | $2.71 | 1 in 790 |
| 100 | Pelipper #204 | $2.71 | 1 in 790 |
| 101 | Skwovet #205 | $2.63 | 1 in 790 |
| 102 | Palafin #124 | $2.60 | 1 in 790 |
| 103 | Scovillain #107 | $2.52 | 1 in 790 |
| 104 | Arboliva #104 | $2.46 | 1 in 790 |
| 105 | Pineco #99 | $2.45 | 1 in 790 |
| 106 | Pidgeot ex #221 | $2.44 | 1 in 790 |
| 107 | Abomasnow #101 | $2.41 | 1 in 790 |
| 108 | Capsakid #106 | $2.39 | 1 in 790 |
| 109 | Veluza #125 | $2.39 | 1 in 790 |
| 110 | Naclstack #177 | $2.37 | 1 in 790 |
| 111 | Greedent #206 | $2.36 | 1 in 790 |
| 112 | Cyclizar #195 | $2.28 | 1 in 790 |
| 113 | Kilowattrel #146 | $2.27 | 1 in 790 |
| 114 | Paldean Clodsire ex #219 | $2.21 | 1 in 790 |
| 115 | Garganacl #178 | $2.20 | 1 in 790 |
| 116 | Glimmet #179 | $2.19 | 1 in 790 |
| 117 | Revavroom #193 | $2.15 | 1 in 790 |
| 118 | Shroodle #189 | $2.14 | 1 in 790 |
| 119 | Houndstone #168 | $2.12 | 1 in 790 |
| 120 | Rellor #108 | $2.09 | 1 in 790 |
| 121 | Mabosstiff #188 | $2.06 | 1 in 790 |
| 122 | Rabsca #163 | $1.98 | 1 in 790 |
| 123 | Grafaiai #190 | $1.96 | 1 in 790 |
| 124 | Nacli #176 | $1.94 | 1 in 790 |
| 125 | Noivern ex #220 | $1.91 | 1 in 790 |
| 126 | Varoom #192 | $1.63 | 1 in 790 |
| 127 | Toedscruel ex #213 | $1.46 | 1 in 790 |
| 128 | Forretress ex #212 | $1.15 | 1 in 790 |
| 129 | Squawkabilly ex #223 | $1.14 | 1 in 790 |
| 130 | Glimmora ex #218 | $1.07 | 1 in 790 |
| 131 | Espathra ex #214 | $1.02 | 1 in 790 |
| 132 | Frigibax #128 | — | 1 in 790 |
How the 16.70% rate is computed
Every Paldean Fates booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Shiny Vault, and the era's other chase rarities. The Shiny Vault tier captures 16.70% of those rare-slot draws (= 16.70 packs out of every 100). Within the Shiny Vault tier, all 132 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 16.70% ÷ 132 = 0.0013 = 1 in 790.
This is the same math PackRip's live Paldean Fates simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 16.70% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Shiny Vault
Shiny Vault pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.167000. The expected number of packs until your first Shiny Vault hit is 6; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 17 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Shiny Vault with probability 99.9% — so the average box yields just over 6.0 Shiny Vault pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Paldean Fates packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Paldean Fates binder completion calculator
- Paldean Fates per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Paldean Fates cards