Hidden Fates Secret Rare Pull Rate — 5.00% per pack (1 in 20)
5.00% of Hidden Fates booster packs contain a Secret Rare card — roughly 1 in 20 packs. Hidden Fates ships 8 Secret Rare cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Secret Rare is 0.0063 (≈1 in 160). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Hidden Fates Secret Rare pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 5.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 8 Secret Rare cards = 1 in 160. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Secret Rare cards in Hidden Fates
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooklet Hill #SV88 | $27.64 | 1 in 160 |
| 2 | Tapu Lele-GX #SV94 | $20.63 | 1 in 160 |
| 3 | Tapu Fini-GX #SV92 | $20.41 | 1 in 160 |
| 4 | Tapu Koko-GX #SV93 | $19.44 | 1 in 160 |
| 5 | Tapu Bulu-GX #SV91 | $18.66 | 1 in 160 |
| 6 | Mt. Coronet #SV89 | $11.58 | 1 in 160 |
| 7 | Aether Paradise Conservation Area #SV87 | $8.25 | 1 in 160 |
| 8 | Shrine of Punishment #SV90 | $6.12 | 1 in 160 |
How the 5.00% rate is computed
Every Hidden Fates booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 6 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Secret Rare, and the era's other chase rarities. The Secret Rare tier captures 5.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 5.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Secret Rare tier, all 8 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 5.00% ÷ 8 = 0.0063 = 1 in 160.
This is the same math PackRip's live Hidden Fates simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 5.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Secret Rare
Secret Rare pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.050000. The expected number of packs until your first Secret Rare hit is 20; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 59 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Secret Rare with probability 84.2% — so the average box yields just over 1.8 Secret Rare pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Hidden Fates packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Hidden Fates binder completion calculator
- Hidden Fates per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Hidden Fates cards