Gym Challenge Rare Holo Pull Rate — 36.00% per pack (1 in 3)
36.00% of Gym Challenge booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Gym Challenge ships 20 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0180 (≈1 in 56). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Gym Challenge Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 36.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 20 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 56. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Gym Challenge
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blaine's Charizard #2 | $521.82 | 1 in 56 |
| 2 | Rocket's Mewtwo #14 | $218.78 | 1 in 56 |
| 3 | Erika's Venusaur #4 | $148.36 | 1 in 56 |
| 4 | Misty's Gyarados #13 | $129.63 | 1 in 56 |
| 5 | Giovanni's Gyarados #5 | $117.18 | 1 in 56 |
| 6 | Blaine's Arcanine #1 | $92.65 | 1 in 56 |
| 7 | Rocket's Zapdos #15 | $88.02 | 1 in 56 |
| 8 | Lt. Surge's Raichu #11 | $73.30 | 1 in 56 |
| 9 | Giovanni's Nidoking #7 | $73.10 | 1 in 56 |
| 10 | Brock's Ninetales #3 | $71.92 | 1 in 56 |
| 11 | Giovanni's Machamp #6 | $71.44 | 1 in 56 |
| 12 | Sabrina #20 | $66.70 | 1 in 56 |
| 13 | Koga's Ditto #10 | $63.20 | 1 in 56 |
| 14 | Sabrina's Alakazam #16 | $59.95 | 1 in 56 |
| 15 | Misty's Golduck #12 | $54.41 | 1 in 56 |
| 16 | Giovanni's Persian #8 | $47.31 | 1 in 56 |
| 17 | Giovanni #18 | $41.59 | 1 in 56 |
| 18 | Koga #19 | $34.15 | 1 in 56 |
| 19 | Blaine #17 | $33.38 | 1 in 56 |
| 20 | Koga's Beedrill #9 | $22.92 | 1 in 56 |
How the 36.00% rate is computed
Every Gym Challenge booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 2 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 36.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 36.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 20 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 36.00% ÷ 20 = 0.0180 = 1 in 56.
This is the same math PackRip's live Gym Challenge simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 36.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.360000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 3; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 7 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 13.0 Rare Holo pulls.