Expedition Rare Holo Pull Rate — 36.00% per pack (1 in 3)
36.00% of Expedition booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Expedition ships 32 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0113 (≈1 in 89). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Expedition Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 36.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 32 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 89. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Expedition
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragonite #9 | $949.79 | 1 in 89 |
| 2 | Gengar #13 | $716.67 | 1 in 89 |
| 3 | Mew #19 | $525.00 | 1 in 89 |
| 4 | Mewtwo #20 | $409.05 | 1 in 89 |
| 5 | Tyranitar #29 | $311.00 | 1 in 89 |
| 6 | Pichu #22 | $305.00 | 1 in 89 |
| 7 | Charizard #6 | $287.50 | 1 in 89 |
| 8 | Blastoise #4 | $251.55 | 1 in 89 |
| 9 | Feraligatr #12 | $234.88 | 1 in 89 |
| 10 | Alakazam #1 | $233.32 | 1 in 89 |
| 11 | Venusaur #30 | $209.54 | 1 in 89 |
| 12 | Typhlosion #28 | $203.33 | 1 in 89 |
| 13 | Meganium #18 | $180.01 | 1 in 89 |
| 14 | Butterfree #5 | $180.00 | 1 in 89 |
| 15 | Ampharos #2 | $175.00 | 1 in 89 |
| 16 | Raichu #25 | $174.99 | 1 in 89 |
| 17 | Clefable #7 | $161.91 | 1 in 89 |
| 18 | Pidgeot #23 | $158.31 | 1 in 89 |
| 19 | Machamp #16 | $133.59 | 1 in 89 |
| 20 | Rapidash #26 | $133.14 | 1 in 89 |
| 21 | Arbok #3 | $125.00 | 1 in 89 |
| 22 | Fearow #11 | $98.14 | 1 in 89 |
| 23 | Ninetales #21 | $92.00 | 1 in 89 |
| 24 | Cloyster #8 | $91.71 | 1 in 89 |
| 25 | Magby #17 | $85.06 | 1 in 89 |
| 26 | Dugtrio #10 | $82.33 | 1 in 89 |
| 27 | Vileplume #31 | $81.30 | 1 in 89 |
| 28 | Weezing #32 | $74.11 | 1 in 89 |
| 29 | Kingler #15 | $66.42 | 1 in 89 |
| 30 | Skarmory #27 | $65.57 | 1 in 89 |
| 31 | Golem #14 | $54.29 | 1 in 89 |
| 32 | Poliwrath #24 | $44.99 | 1 in 89 |
How the 36.00% rate is computed
Every Expedition booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 2 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 36.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 36.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 32 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 36.00% ÷ 32 = 0.0113 = 1 in 89.
This is the same math PackRip's live Expedition simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 36.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.360000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 3; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 7 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 13.0 Rare Holo pulls.