Majestic Dawn Rare Holo Pull Rate — 33.00% per pack (1 in 3)
33.00% of Majestic Dawn booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Majestic Dawn ships 14 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0236 (≈1 in 42). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Majestic Dawn Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 33.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 14 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 42. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Majestic Dawn
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glaceon #5 | $264.00 | 1 in 42 |
| 2 | Mewtwo #9 | $148.98 | 1 in 42 |
| 3 | Leafeon #7 | $81.77 | 1 in 42 |
| 4 | Palkia #11 | $74.95 | 1 in 42 |
| 5 | Darkrai #3 | $62.40 | 1 in 42 |
| 6 | Dialga #4 | $55.62 | 1 in 42 |
| 7 | Zapdos #14 | $51.00 | 1 in 42 |
| 8 | Moltres #10 | $48.10 | 1 in 42 |
| 9 | Articuno #1 | $36.11 | 1 in 42 |
| 10 | Kabutops #6 | $35.00 | 1 in 42 |
| 11 | Cresselia #2 | $24.32 | 1 in 42 |
| 12 | Rotom #13 | $23.01 | 1 in 42 |
| 13 | Manaphy #8 | $11.62 | 1 in 42 |
| 14 | Phione #12 | $8.50 | 1 in 42 |
How the 33.00% rate is computed
Every Majestic Dawn booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 3 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 33.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 33.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 14 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 33.00% ÷ 14 = 0.0236 = 1 in 42.
This is the same math PackRip's live Majestic Dawn simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 33.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.330000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 8 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 11.9 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Majestic Dawn packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Majestic Dawn binder completion calculator
- Majestic Dawn per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Majestic Dawn cards