How Many Packs to Pull Rayquaza-EX from Roaring Skies
| Card | Rayquaza-EX — Roaring Skies #104 |
|---|---|
| Rarity tier | Full Art |
| Per-pack odds | 1 in 140 |
| Expected packs to pull | 141 |
| 50% confidence band | 97 packs |
| 95% confidence band | 419 packs |
| TCGplayer market | $155.66 |
| Pack-rip break-even | 31 packs @ $5 |
Rayquaza-EX chase methodology
| Formula | Specific-card odds = Full Art tier rate (8.56%) ÷ 12 cards; confidence bands solve 1 - (1 - p)^N. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | Independent pack rolls, uniform selection within the rarity tier, no pity timers, no box mapping, no first-edition/condition split, no duplicate protection. |
| Data source | Card identity and rarity from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; pull-rate constants from the live simulator; market price from the bundled TCGplayer snapshot. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender; price values update when the TCGplayer snapshot is refreshed through the data pipeline. |
| Limitations | The page estimates probability and raw market cost only; it does not model grading premiums, counterfeit risk, sealed-product appreciation, or individual print-run collation. |
This page answers exactly one question: how many Roaring Skies booster packs does it take to pull Rayquaza-EX #104? The numbers below come from the same per-rarity pull-rate model the PackRip Roaring Skies simulator runs on, mirrored from packGenerator.ts. TCGplayer pricing refreshes every build, so the buy-vs-rip verdict at the bottom reflects current market.
The math: ~1 in 140 per pack
Rayquaza-EX sits in the Full Art rare-slot pool for Roaring Skies. There are 12 Full Art cards in the Roaring Skies pool, and the Full Art slot fires with probability 8.56% per pack. Since the slot is split evenly across the 12 cards in that tier, the per-pack chance of pulling this specific card is 1 in 140 — approximately 1 in 140.
Pulls are independent and identically distributed, so the number of packs until you hit Rayquaza-EX follows a geometric distribution with parameter p = 0.007133. The expected number of packs is 1/p — that's ~141 packs on average. But "average" hides huge variance: the median pull lands faster than the mean (~97 packs at 50% confidence), and a long unlucky tail can stretch the wait dramatically. The 95% confidence band — 419 packs — is where 95% of pull-runs finish; the remaining 5% take even longer.
Concretely: if 100 collectors each opened Roaring Skies packs until they pulled Rayquaza-EX, roughly 50 of them would have it by pack 97, 95 of them would have it by pack 419, and a handful would still be chasing past that. Expected ≠ guaranteed; the geometric distribution is famously long-tailed on the right side.
Confidence bands — packs vs cumulative probability
| P(pulled by N packs) | Packs needed | Sealed cost at $5/pack |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | 15 packs | ~$75 sealed cost |
| 25% | 41 packs | ~$205 sealed cost |
| 50% | 97 packs | ~$485 sealed cost |
| 75% | 194 packs | ~$970 sealed cost |
| 90% | 322 packs | ~$1,610 sealed cost |
| 95% | 419 packs | ~$2,095 sealed cost |
| 99% | 644 packs | ~$3,220 sealed cost |
Read this table as "what fraction of openers have pulled Rayquaza-EX by pack N?". A 25% band of 41 packs means a quarter of openers hit it inside that window; 99% means almost everyone has hit it by pack 644. The dollar column anchors the variance to real-world sealed-pack cost at $5/pack.
Cheaper to buy Rayquaza-EX as a single?
Buying Rayquaza-EX as a single on TCGplayer (~$155.66) is dramatically cheaper than chasing it through packs — the expected pack-rip cost is roughly $701, well above the market price.
Pack-rip expected dollar cost for this specific card: ~$701 at $5 per Roaring Skies pack. Compare to $155.66 for the single on TCGplayer (Unlimited / non-graded copy at current market). The single buy obviously delivers exactly this card; the pack-rip approach delivers Rayquaza-EX plus the remaining 9 cards in every pack along the way — which is why the EV calculator at /ev/xy6 spreads the cost across the whole pack contents instead of pinning it to one card.
About Rayquaza-EX (Roaring Skies)
Rayquaza-EX is a Full Art card from Roaring Skies, the 2015 Pokémon TCG expansion. Roaring Skies (2015) is a Dragon-leaning 112-card set — 19 Dragon cards, second only to Colorless at 22. Rayquaza-EX and M Rayquaza-EX each appear twice in the numbered run (#60, #61, #75, #76) and again as Rare Ultras at #104 and #105. Shaymin-EX shows up three times across #77, #77a and #106. Both Secret Rares are Trainer items: Energy Switch #109 and VS Seeker #110.
This specific card ranks as one of the top-3 most valuable pulls in Roaring Skies by TCGplayer market value, which is part of why the chase math is what it is — high market value tends to track with rarity-tier depth, since lower pool sizes concentrate value into fewer cards. The complete top-25 Roaring Skies ranking shows where Rayquaza-EX sits relative to the rest of the chase pool.
Pull odds in context
For reference, a "1 in 140" pull is roughly comparable to a deep chase — multi-box territory, often case-level commitment. The variance is the killer: any one pack could be the one. The simulation on PackRip's Roaring Skies opener uses the same exact RNG model, so you can stress-test the wait curve without spending real money.
Related chases
- M Rayquaza-EX — Full Art, $357.92 market
- M Latios-EX — Full Art, $97.88 market
- All Rayquaza-EX printings across 8 sets
- All top-25 Roaring Skies chases
- Complete the Roaring Skies binder — full calculator
Open Roaring Skies free
Rip Roaring Skies packs free on PackRip's simulator with the same per-rarity pull rates this page is built from. The Hunt Pack mode boosts the Full Art slot if you specifically want to optimise for Rayquaza-EX-tier pulls. Coin economy is virtual — no real money on the line.
Strategy: optimising the Rayquaza-EX chase
Every experienced Roaring Skies hunter eventually picks one of three approaches for a specific chase card. The cheapest is the snipe: skip pack-ripping entirely, set a TCGplayer alert at or below the current $155.66 market, and wait for a motivated seller. This is the route most efficient-frontier collectors take when the chase is locked behind a deep rarity tier — and the math above shows why. The expected pack-rip cost ($701) is typically multiples of the single price, and the variance on that expectation is wide enough that a single bad streak can blow past the 95% confidence bound. The single buy is dollar-for-dollar cheaper and emotionally cheaper too — no more refreshing pack-pull videos at 3am.
The middle path is the box-rip-then-snipe: open a sealed booster box of Roaring Skies (typically 36 packs for vintage sets), enjoy the experience, then if you didn't hit Rayquaza-EX in the box, buy the single for $155.66. A 36-pack box delivers a probability of 1 − (1 − p)36 ≈ 22.7% of pulling Rayquaza-EX at least once, where p is the per-pack hit rate of 0.007133. So a sealed box gives you roughly a 23% chance of hitting this card "for free" alongside the rest of the box contents, plus the rip experience. If you miss, you backstop by buying the single — total worst-case cost is the box price plus the single. Most rational hobbyists end here.
The expensive path is pure-rip-to-pull: keep opening packs until Rayquaza-EX appears. The expected total cost is ~$701, but the 95th percentile pushes that to ~$2,095. Almost nobody who does this comes out ahead financially — but it produces the binder story, the YouTube content, and the cumulative pulls of the entire pack contents along the way. If your real goal is collecting all of Roaring Skies, not just acquiring Rayquaza-EX, the pure-rip path has an internal logic the singles path doesn't.
Variance is the entire story
Here's a concrete illustration of how wild the geometric distribution gets at low p. Consider 10 hypothetical openers all chasing Rayquaza-EX from Roaring Skies. Mathematically, you'd expect their results to cluster near the 141-pack expectation — but they won't. Roughly 5 will pull Rayquaza-EX within the first 97 packs and feel lucky. Roughly 3 will pull between 97 and 141 packs and feel "about average". And roughly 2 will be still pulling past pack 141, with one of them potentially stretching past the 95% bound of 419. The unlucky ones will swear the simulator is rigged, the rates are wrong, or that they have terrible RNG — but the math says exactly this distribution should happen every time. The geometric distribution has no memory: each pack is an independent draw, and a 100-pack dry streak does not increase the odds of the next pack hitting.
How Rayquaza-EX compares to the broader Roaring Skies chase pool
Rayquaza-EX sits in the Full Art tier of Roaring Skies's rare-slot pool. 12 cards share this tier, and the tier itself fires roughly 8.56% of the time per pack. That means the per-pack chance of pulling any Full Art card (not just Rayquaza-EX) is 8.56%, which makes the expected wait for any Full Art card much shorter than the wait for this specific one. Pull-rate intuition: a single chase from a 6-card tier is 6× rarer than the tier itself. The deeper the pool, the longer the chase. This is also why "wide" sets with many chase cards in a single tier feel grindier per individual card despite the tier hit rate being identical — a thicker tier dilutes each card's specific share.
If your real goal is "any chase card from Roaring Skies" rather than "Rayquaza-EX specifically", the math gets dramatically friendlier — the wait drops to ~12 packs on average for the tier as a whole. Most binder collectors approach it this way: chase the tier broadly across multiple sets, accept whatever pulls, and snipe the specific holes via TCGplayer later. Targeting one card from a thick tier is the most expensive way to play the chase, and Rayquaza-EX is no exception.