How Many Packs to Pull Ninetales ex from Hidden Legends
| Card | Ninetales ex — Hidden Legends #96 |
|---|---|
| Rarity tier | Pokémon-ex |
| Per-pack odds | 1 in 54 |
| Expected packs to pull | 54 |
| 50% confidence band | 38 packs |
| 95% confidence band | 160 packs |
| TCGplayer market | $232.50 |
| Pack-rip break-even | 47 packs @ $5 |
Ninetales ex chase methodology
| Formula | Specific-card odds = Pokémon-ex tier rate (16.70%) ÷ 9 cards; confidence bands solve 1 - (1 - p)^N. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | Independent pack rolls, uniform selection within the rarity tier, no pity timers, no box mapping, no first-edition/condition split, no duplicate protection. |
| Data source | Card identity and rarity from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; pull-rate constants from the live simulator; market price from the bundled TCGplayer snapshot. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender; price values update when the TCGplayer snapshot is refreshed through the data pipeline. |
| Limitations | The page estimates probability and raw market cost only; it does not model grading premiums, counterfeit risk, sealed-product appreciation, or individual print-run collation. |
This page answers exactly one question: how many Hidden Legends booster packs does it take to pull Ninetales ex #96? The numbers below come from the same per-rarity pull-rate model the PackRip Hidden Legends simulator runs on, mirrored from packGenerator.ts. TCGplayer pricing refreshes every build, so the buy-vs-rip verdict at the bottom reflects current market.
The math: ~1 in 54 per pack
Ninetales ex sits in the Pokémon-ex rare-slot pool for Hidden Legends. There are 9 Pokémon-ex cards in the Hidden Legends pool, and the Pokémon-ex slot fires with probability 16.70% per pack. Since the slot is split evenly across the 9 cards in that tier, the per-pack chance of pulling this specific card is 1 in 54 — approximately 1 in 54.
Pulls are independent and identically distributed, so the number of packs until you hit Ninetales ex follows a geometric distribution with parameter p = 0.018556. The expected number of packs is 1/p — that's ~54 packs on average. But "average" hides huge variance: the median pull lands faster than the mean (~38 packs at 50% confidence), and a long unlucky tail can stretch the wait dramatically. The 95% confidence band — 160 packs — is where 95% of pull-runs finish; the remaining 5% take even longer.
Concretely: if 100 collectors each opened Hidden Legends packs until they pulled Ninetales ex, roughly 50 of them would have it by pack 38, 95 of them would have it by pack 160, and a handful would still be chasing past that. Expected ≠ guaranteed; the geometric distribution is famously long-tailed on the right side.
Confidence bands — packs vs cumulative probability
| P(pulled by N packs) | Packs needed | Sealed cost at $5/pack |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | 6 packs | ~$30 sealed cost |
| 25% | 16 packs | ~$80 sealed cost |
| 50% | 38 packs | ~$190 sealed cost |
| 75% | 75 packs | ~$375 sealed cost |
| 90% | 123 packs | ~$615 sealed cost |
| 95% | 160 packs | ~$800 sealed cost |
| 99% | 246 packs | ~$1,230 sealed cost |
Read this table as "what fraction of openers have pulled Ninetales ex by pack N?". A 25% band of 16 packs means a quarter of openers hit it inside that window; 99% means almost everyone has hit it by pack 246. The dollar column anchors the variance to real-world sealed-pack cost at $5/pack.
Cheaper to buy Ninetales ex as a single?
Buying Ninetales ex as a single (~$232.50) edges out pack-ripping on raw cost. Pack-rip expected value is ~$269 for this specific pull.
Pack-rip expected dollar cost for this specific card: ~$269 at $5 per Hidden Legends pack. Compare to $232.50 for the single on TCGplayer (Unlimited / non-graded copy at current market). The single buy obviously delivers exactly this card; the pack-rip approach delivers Ninetales ex plus the remaining 8 cards in every pack along the way — which is why the EV calculator at /ev/ex5 spreads the cost across the whole pack contents instead of pinning it to one card.
About Ninetales ex (Hidden Legends)
Ninetales ex is a Pokémon-ex card from Hidden Legends, the 2004 Pokémon TCG expansion. Hidden Legends (2004) holds 102 cards built around the Hoenn legendaries: Groudon ex #93, Kyogre ex #94 and the Regi trio at Regice ex #97, Regirock ex #98 and Registeel ex #99 sit among the nine ex cards, with Groudon #102 as the lone Secret Rare. There are no Gold Star cards in this set — the Rare Holo Star tier does not appear in PackRip's catalog until Team Rocket Returns.
This specific card ranks as one of the top-3 most valuable pulls in Hidden Legends by TCGplayer market value, which is part of why the chase math is what it is — high market value tends to track with rarity-tier depth, since lower pool sizes concentrate value into fewer cards. The complete top-25 Hidden Legends ranking shows where Ninetales ex sits relative to the rest of the chase pool.
Pull odds in context
For reference, a "1 in 54" pull is roughly comparable to a moderate chase — you should expect to crack a couple of boxes. The variance is the killer: any one pack could be the one. The simulation on PackRip's Hidden Legends opener uses the same exact RNG model, so you can stress-test the wait curve without spending real money.
Related chases
- Kyogre ex — Pokémon-ex, $219.99 market
- Groudon ex — Pokémon-ex, $196.01 market
- All Ninetales ex printings across 3 sets
- All top-25 Hidden Legends chases
- Complete the Hidden Legends binder — full calculator
Open Hidden Legends free
Rip Hidden Legends packs free on PackRip's simulator with the same per-rarity pull rates this page is built from. The Hunt Pack mode boosts the Pokémon-ex slot if you specifically want to optimise for Ninetales ex-tier pulls. Coin economy is virtual — no real money on the line.
Strategy: optimising the Ninetales ex chase
Every experienced Hidden Legends hunter eventually picks one of three approaches for a specific chase card. The cheapest is the snipe: skip pack-ripping entirely, set a TCGplayer alert at or below the current $232.50 market, and wait for a motivated seller. This is the route most efficient-frontier collectors take when the chase is locked behind a deep rarity tier — and the math above shows why. The expected pack-rip cost ($269) is typically multiples of the single price, and the variance on that expectation is wide enough that a single bad streak can blow past the 95% confidence bound. The single buy is dollar-for-dollar cheaper and emotionally cheaper too — no more refreshing pack-pull videos at 3am.
The middle path is the box-rip-then-snipe: open a sealed booster box of Hidden Legends (typically 36 packs for vintage sets), enjoy the experience, then if you didn't hit Ninetales ex in the box, buy the single for $232.50. A 36-pack box delivers a probability of 1 − (1 − p)36 ≈ 49.0% of pulling Ninetales ex at least once, where p is the per-pack hit rate of 0.018556. So a sealed box gives you roughly a 49% chance of hitting this card "for free" alongside the rest of the box contents, plus the rip experience. If you miss, you backstop by buying the single — total worst-case cost is the box price plus the single. Most rational hobbyists end here.
The expensive path is pure-rip-to-pull: keep opening packs until Ninetales ex appears. The expected total cost is ~$269, but the 95th percentile pushes that to ~$800. Almost nobody who does this comes out ahead financially — but it produces the binder story, the YouTube content, and the cumulative pulls of the entire pack contents along the way. If your real goal is collecting all of Hidden Legends, not just acquiring Ninetales ex, the pure-rip path has an internal logic the singles path doesn't.
Variance is the entire story
Here's a concrete illustration of how wild the geometric distribution gets at low p. Consider 10 hypothetical openers all chasing Ninetales ex from Hidden Legends. Mathematically, you'd expect their results to cluster near the 54-pack expectation — but they won't. Roughly 5 will pull Ninetales ex within the first 38 packs and feel lucky. Roughly 3 will pull between 38 and 54 packs and feel "about average". And roughly 2 will be still pulling past pack 54, with one of them potentially stretching past the 95% bound of 160. The unlucky ones will swear the simulator is rigged, the rates are wrong, or that they have terrible RNG — but the math says exactly this distribution should happen every time. The geometric distribution has no memory: each pack is an independent draw, and a 100-pack dry streak does not increase the odds of the next pack hitting.
How Ninetales ex compares to the broader Hidden Legends chase pool
Ninetales ex sits in the Pokémon-ex tier of Hidden Legends's rare-slot pool. 9 cards share this tier, and the tier itself fires roughly 16.70% of the time per pack. That means the per-pack chance of pulling any Pokémon-ex card (not just Ninetales ex) is 16.70%, which makes the expected wait for any Pokémon-ex card much shorter than the wait for this specific one. Pull-rate intuition: a single chase from a 6-card tier is 6× rarer than the tier itself. The deeper the pool, the longer the chase. This is also why "wide" sets with many chase cards in a single tier feel grindier per individual card despite the tier hit rate being identical — a thicker tier dilutes each card's specific share.
If your real goal is "any chase card from Hidden Legends" rather than "Ninetales ex specifically", the math gets dramatically friendlier — the wait drops to ~6 packs on average for the tier as a whole. Most binder collectors approach it this way: chase the tier broadly across multiple sets, accept whatever pulls, and snipe the specific holes via TCGplayer later. Targeting one card from a thick tier is the most expensive way to play the chase, and Ninetales ex is no exception.